BSPED2010 Oral Communications Oral Communications 4 (Brief Communications) (4 abstracts)
Cyclical variation in the incidence of type 1 diabetes in children from northeast England
R McNally 1 , S Court 1 , P James 1 , R Pollock 1 , K Blakey 1 , M Begon 2 & T Cheetham 3
1Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK; 2School of Biological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; 3Institute of Human Genetics, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Background: Environmental factors play a role in the aetiology of type 1 diabetes. A particular role for infectious exposures has been postulated. Temporal variation in incidence would be consistent with this hypothesis. We specifically aimed to test predictions of increasing incidence occurring among cases of type 1 diabetes in children (aged 0–14 years) that might arise as a result of an environmental mechanism.
Subjects and methods: The study analysed 526 cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in children who were resident in a geographically defined region of northeast England during the period 1990–2007. Age-specific and age-standardised incidence rates were calculated. Temporal trends and patterns were analysed using Poisson regression.
Results: Age-standardised incidence rates increased from 14.6 per 100 000 persons per year in 1900–1995 to 27.4 per 100 000 persons per year in 2002–2007: an overall increase of 5.3% per annum (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.4–7.1). Furthermore, there was a regular six-year cyclical pattern of plus or minus 25% in incidence rates (rate ratio =1.25; 95% CI 1.11–1.42).
Conclusions: The results are consistent with the involvement of one or more environmental exposures in aetiology. A possible role for a specific infectious agent should be considered.
Volume 24
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Endocrine Abstracts
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